By akademiotoelektronik, 16/02/2023

Army scales back strikes in Syria as northern border heats up

In recent weeks, the IDF has shifted its priorities. The IDF has shifted from the "northern arena" with Syria and Lebanon to the Gaza Strip, where tensions are rising amid fears of another flare-up in violence, according to information from The Times of Israel.

In recent years, the Israeli military has focused primarily on its fight against Iran and its allies, including the powerful Hezbollah terror group and smaller Shia militias. Israel says they are trying to establish a permanent military presence in Syria and transfer weapons from Tehran, through Iraq and Syria, to Lebanon.

It used to be a much easier effort. In fact, Israel had complete air superiority during the early years of the Syrian civil war. With Russia's entry into the conflict in 2015, Iran's growing boldness in the region, and Syrian dictator Bashar Assad's ever-increasing willingness to retaliate against Israeli operations in recent years, this fight has become more complicated. .

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According to army figures, between 2010 and 2013, two Syrian surface-to-air missiles were fired at Israeli planes, compared to 844 that were launched at Israeli planes between 2017 and 2020.

During this period, from 2017 to 2020, the IDF also fired around 5,000 missiles at 955 targets in Syria, according to military estimates.

In the past two years, the Israeli military has destroyed a third of Syria's advanced defense systems, according to IDF estimates. However, a good part of these anti-aircraft weapons have already been replaced, or even improved, by more advanced models, coming from Russia or Iran.

The IDF refers to this conflict as the “war-between-wars” or “campaign-between-campaigns,” and, in Hebrew, simply by its acronym Mabam.

With rare exceptions, Israel does not acknowledge the specific operations it is conducting in this conflict, but the Jewish state publicly acknowledges that it is conducting strikes in Syria generally. Israeli officials believe that avoiding public claims of responsibility for specific actions reduces the likelihood that Syria, Hezbollah, or Iran will feel compelled to retaliate in order to save face.

During Mabam, one of the main objectives of the army is to hold the fight just below the surface. But that tactic didn't always work.

Syrian air defenses respond to suspected Israeli missiles targeting the south of the capital Damascus on July 20, 2020. (AFP)

On July 20, the Israeli army reportedly carried out a series of airstrikes on sites linked to the Iran around Damascus. In a strike on Damascus International Airport, a Hezbollah operative was killed. This incident led the Lebanese terror group to vow revenge, in line with its longstanding policy to retaliate for every death among its ranks.

The IDF quickly went on high alert along the Lebanese and Syrian borders, preparing for an attack by Hezbollah. Over three weeks, there were several near-successful attempts along the border, including a foiled infiltration attempt on July 27 in the disputed area of ​​Mount Dov. There was also an attempt to bring a drone into Israeli territory from Lebanon last Friday.

Israeli army forces stationed near the Israel-Lebanon border in the Golan Heights on July 27, 2020. (Courtesy David Cohen/Flash90)

After the explosion at the port of Beirut, which shook the Lebanese capital, the army began to lower its state of alert along the border. Hezbollah seemed to be focused on internal issues, rather than revenge against Israel.

To limit such tensions, the IDF generally avoids killing Hezbollah fighters. The IDF sees little benefit in the death of a small number of low-level operatives compared to the necessary cost of resources to be mobilized for a Hezbollah response. (The military doesn't seem to have as many qualms when it comes to members of other Iran-backed Shia militias. Their members often come from poorer and weaker Muslim countries like Afghanistan, and they are less likely to fight back or be able to do so).

To avoid tense situations with Hezbollah, Israeli Air Force chief Amikam Norkin sometimes called off strikes if there was a risk that could cause unnecessary casualties.

In the case of the July 20 strike, the IDF apparently did not know the Hezbollah fighter was at the targeted facility at the time of the strike, according to reports from The Times of Israel.

Speaking to reporters last month, Defense Minister Benny Gantz said such incidents were inevitable and to be expected. “If anyone is involved in Iran's activities in Syria – which we will continue to act against – it is likely to happen. We take that into account,” he said on July 26.

In order to calm things down in the increasingly tense arena in the north, the Israeli army has decided to reduce its operations there in recent weeks. At the same time, it increased its level of readiness to fight on the Gaza front, which saw a rapid escalation of tensions as the week progressed.

An Israeli Nature and Parks Authority employee attempts to put out a fire caused by an incendiary balloon launched by Palestinians from the Gaza Strip towards the Israeli side of the Israel-Gaza border near Or HaNer Kibbutz, Wednesday, August 12, 2020. (AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov)

The Hamas terror organization and other terror groups in the Gaza Strip have threatened violence along the border in response the delay in implementing an unofficial ceasefire agreement with Israel. They affirmed their intention to fight with the daily launching of the incendiary balloons, which sparked dozens of fires in southern Israel. Last Sunday, a rocket attack was intercepted by the Iron Dome Defense system. On Sunday, sniper attacks targeted civilian workers building the security fence and soldiers, with no injuries.

In response to these attacks, the IDF – mainly through the Air Force – bombed some Hamas positions in the Gaza Strip, including several tunnels.

The war-between-wars

The war-between-wars is primarily an air campaign, as nearly all Israeli strikes on targets in Syria come from the air. The responses to these attacks also come from the sky, which places the Air Force in the front line and at the center of the conflict for both attack and defense. It must fire on targets in Syria and also shoot down the missiles, rockets and drones that are launched in response.

An IDF image showing a group of four people the military says entered Israeli territory and attempted to plant a bomb at an abandoned military post, August 2, 2020 (Screen capture: IDF)< p>Even in the case of ground-based attacks, such as last week's failed attempt to plant a bomb inside Israeli-controlled territory on the Syrian border, IDF drones usually take part in military operations, monitoring the situation from the sky.

At the start of the Syrian civil war, when the campaign-between-campaigns began, the IDF could operate freely, targeting arms deliveries without fear of anti-aircraft fire or retaliation.

The situation changed in 2015 when Russia deployed its army to Syria, including powerful anti-aircraft defense batteries, to support its ally Assad. Israel was able to negotiate with Moscow its freedom of action in the region, as long as the IDF did not endanger Russian lives.

While there were a few instances of Syria using its anti-aircraft missiles against Israeli aircraft in the early years of the conflict, it was not until 2017 that the Syrian military began firing more freely – and sometimes wildly – ​​on IDF planes.

In this image from video provided by Yehunda Pinto, the wreckage of an Israeli F-16 fighter jet is seen on fire near Harduf, northern Israel, February 10, 2018. (Yehunda Pinto via AP)

In February 2018, Syria hit its first – and so far only – Israeli target in this conflict. The Syrian army shot down an F-16 in an intense Israeli bombing operation in response to an Iranian military drone being sent into Israeli airspace earlier that day. It was the first combat aircraft lost by Israel to enemy fire since 1982.

According to the IDF, the F-16 pilot failed to react quickly enough to the warnings he received of an approaching S-200 missile. The pilot was focused on guiding a bomb he had just fired towards his target. The crew was able to catapult themselves safely and the plane crashed into Israeli territory.

In September 2018, in another raid on Iranian targets in Syria, a Russian spy plane with 15 crew on board was shot down by a Syrian S-200 missile that had been fired in response to the attack. Israeli attack.

Moscow blamed Israel for the deaths of its soldiers, which created strong tensions between the two countries and led Russia to sell the powerful S-300 air defense system to Syria. Previously, Moscow had agreed for years not to sell the system to Syria in consideration of Israeli concerns.

Screen capture from video showing the delivery of S-300 air defense missiles to Syria (Screen capture: YouTube)

Even though it is technically in the hands of the Syrian military, the S- 300 does not yet appear to have been used on Israeli aircraft, apparently at the request of Moscow. The Israeli Air Force, however, does not know how long this will last and is preparing for when it will face the more advanced S-300 system, also known as the SA-10, in combat.

Since 2018, the year in which the IDF conducted the most operations during the war-between-wars, the IDF has reduced the number of missions it conducts on targets in Syria. The IDF, however, claims to strike sites of greater strategic value.

Over the past two years, the IDF has also carried out strikes in Syria aimed at preventing the Assad regime, which is still recovering from the civil war it won, from developing military might that could one day pose a serious threat. to Israel.