By akademiotoelektronik, 14/07/2022
Future story of the next world wars |Near future
Depuis l'aube de la civilisation, les êtres humains se battent les uns contre les autres, mais les armées et les guerres sont quelque chose qui n'a vraiment émergé que vers le 3ème millénaire avant JC. À partir de ce moment, toutes les conventions que nous connaissons aujourd'hui ont émergé. Forces armées permanentes, manœuvres coordonnées, siège, domination du territoire. Au fil du temps, ces concepts ont évolué pour intégrer de nouvelles technologies.
Without venturing, I could almost say that wars are a criterion for understanding the evolution of civilizations.In other words, a civilization can be measured by the content and distribution of its armed forces.During the last century, human civilization has radically changed and these changes have reflected in the way the wars were carried out.
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Much, much more could change by the middle of this century.To the point that our ancestors do not recognize future practices as "war".What's going to happen?
All new threats
Between 1945 and 1991, geopolitical balance saw the contrast of two large blocks: Cold War, Baby.After the collapse of the Soviet Union, everything has radically changed.
According to a 2020 report in the United States Department of Internal Security (DHS), the greatest threats to national security are no longer nuclear wars or conventional wars.New threats are called cyberguerre, terrorism, foreign influences in natural elections and disasters.
Le tableau (sombre) des guerres possibles dans les décennies à venir
Within 2050, the growth of distributed systems, quantum computer science, 3D printing, cryptocurrencies, biotechnology and climate change will upset everything.On the geopolitical level, many predict that the power of states could decrease drastically, leaving room for autonomous regions, even private state-state.Already today the first signs are felt by this trend.
Technologies such as the editing of CRISPR genes, biological printers, genetic databases and artificial intelligence software will also create new opportunities for bioterrorism.Groups animated by bad intentions will be able to design viral bodies or toxins in a laboratory.The sparks of new wars will multiply considerably.
This is why it is difficult to imagine the battlefields of the future.As always, however, examining emerging technologies and current dynamics makes it possible to draw provisional conclusions.Future wars will probably contain a handful of major factors: new technologies, new threats, the end of heavy weapons and the replacement of humans with drones, robots and perhaps cyborgs.Let us take them into consideration.
Quantum weapons arrive
I know, you know, the cyber wars are raging.Since the advent of the Internet, countries around the world have been trying to use the Internet as a weapon against financial markets, systems and digital infrastructure from other countries or large companies.Dolman Aradori, Head of Safety DI Data NTT estimates that in 2021, there will be a cyber attack every 11 seconds.Pirates and "hacktivists" are among the most sought after, for the better or for the worst, among the police trying to arrest them and the governments that try to hire them.
This situation will radically change with the advent of quantum calculation.Quantum computers can work incredibly quickly and with astronomically high numbers.Two important factors in the development of quantum computers are the number of qubit (the quantum equivalent of computer bits) and the consistency time, the duration during which a qubit may contain information.
During the 2010s, the most powerful quantum computers had a number of qubits less than 100 and consistency times ranging from nanosecond to microsecond.A study estimates that between 2030 and 2040 The number of qubits and the consistency time will both be increased to the point that they may be able to break all current cryptographic algorithms in just 10 seconds.To be clear: the data sent or received on the Internet is not reliable.Many current companies such as the use of credit cards or online banking services may become a nightmare.
To avoid this, many global governments (leading the United States and China) make a "quantum race" to also develop new cryptographic systems that new quantum computers are not able to rape.Whoever wins this race will have access to all the opponent's information, as long as he will not be able to protect himself.
In its own way, convincing but much more dangerous (for the stability of the world) than the race for space of the 60s.
Drones as if he was raining
Since the beginning of this century, the use of unmanned air combat vehicles (UCAV) has developed considerably.Among the reasons are risk reduction, improving remote operations, the desire to reduce the risk of losses and the growth of terrorism control operations.
A 2013 study by Brookings Institution shows that from 2008 to 2013, the number of drone pilots graduated in training with USAF, the US Air Force, increased from around 500 to 1300 (from around 3.3% at 8.5% of the total).Over the past decade, the USAF has rarely formed more drone drivers than pilots of hunters and bombers combined.
The current objective of research is to make drones smaller, invisible and versatile.The new military drones will perform many other tasks: in particular the supply in flight, synergies with aircraft carriers, recognition and transport.By 2050, drones could completely replace vehicles piloted by humans.
Another possible development is that of micro-drones, or even large aircraft of one millimeter.They could be launched in swarms coordinated by artificial intelligence to touch and destroy enemy targets.
The future of wars is stealthy
Another notable change is the growth and proliferation of furtive technology.The development of radar masking equipment began in the mid-1970s and at the end of the 80s led to the first "invisible" plane such as the F-117 Nighthawk and the B-2 spirit.
Forty years later, stealth technology has spread to include fifth generation hunters, stealthy ships and new generation drones.Furtive technology could become the standard everywhere, and not only for armaments - infantry also seeks means to become more stealthy.
Mimicry has been used since the 19th century (now, military uniform in the collective imagination is camouflage).Modern armies are looking for new ways to remain undetectable: for example, multi-scale mimicry.Considerable research has also been carried out to make the infantry units "invisible" to detection.Research moves to develop reality "invisibility capes" This constitutes the troops to disappear from sight.
If this type of technology is accessible to all service branches by 2050, the time will be for invisible wars.
Bells of death for the tank
For many decades, the pillar of modern wars was the tank.Since the end of the Cold War, however, this vehicle has shown the signs of time: his life may have ended.By 2050, technology will make them obsolete.
The combat tank became a pillar in the 1970s, when gradually a single model has destroyed all of its competitors.Several countries have produced their own versions, including the M1 Abrams We T-80 / T-90soviets-Russian, the German Leopard II, the French Leclerc, Lo ZTZ80 / 88 Cinese, the Israeli Merkava, the British and British Challenger andothers.
The situation has worsened as the anti -tank systems became more sophisticated.During the First Chechen War (1994-1996) and the wars in Iraq (2003-2011) and Afghanistan (2001-2021), the armored units were not adapted to local geography and made several human victims.
To solve this problem, designers have experienced active protection systems, integrated fire controls and other remedies.They will not be enough.The "tanks" will go in the direction of dinosaurs: too expensive to adapt them to different conditions, it is better to replace them with more flexible systems.
An example?The Darpa GXV-T program, which focuses on a vehicle whose wheels can change shape.
By 2050, we will see lighter vehicles in wars on the planet that will have wheels, metamorphosis devices or even legs instead of caterpillars.They will rely on radars, "strategic awareness" software based on AI and active countermeasures that detect incoming threats and neutralize them in advance.Food?High capacity or hydrogen electric.Crew?One or none.And in one hundred thousand.
In terms of armament, the more traditional cannon could be exchanged for an electromagnetic induction cannon (that is to say a cannon on rail) or a directed energy weapon (alias a laser).
Human Machine Interface
The real soldiers still on the battlefield by 2050 will surely have robotic support units to help them in almost everything.Indeed, battle field robots are a focal point for DARPA and other developers who wish to create machines capable of assuming responsibility for managing particularly dirty, dangerous, boring or costly operations in wars.Until, perhaps, kill with independent decisions.
Certain possibilities include robots similar to the humanoid robot known as Atlas, Guépard and Place, all of the Boston Dynamics.These robots and others are based on the principle of biomimicry: machines that imitate living beings to obtain greater freedom of movement and flexibility.
There is also non -inhabited land vehicles (UGV), the land counterpart of drones already widely used in current wars.These robots perform all kinds of tasks, the transport of supplies and the elimination of mines, bombs and trapped equipment, the execution of sentry, recognition and fire support.These robotic systems are likely to become more common, more sophisticated and completely autonomous in the future.
Soldiers and super soldiers
The most radical transformation that will integrate robotics into humans may concern the soldiers themselves.Soon exoskeletons they will give them more strength, endurance and load capacity.
According to a recent report from the United States Ministry of Defense (DOD), 2050 will be the year during which I soldiers Cyborg they will be an integral part of the armed forces.According to the report, the following "cyborg technologies" should have the greatest impact:
The eye implants of the future offer the potential to improve vision and awareness of the situation.By integrating the circuits into the eye, the soldiers they will see in other wavelengths (such as infrared), identify the targets and project RA scenarios into their field of vision.
Contrôle musculaire programmé
Soldiers of future wars can also have networks of subcutaneous sensors integrated into their bodies to improve muscle control by providing stimulation.optogenetics (light impulses).These sensors could also provide automatic prevention of dangers.
By replacing or modifying the bones of the middle ear and the cochlea, the soldiers would have a broader hearing aid and better protection against hearing loss.In combination with eye implants and neural, hearing implants could improve communication and awareness of the situation.This would include the identification of low intensity, potential dangers, echolocation and location.
Amélioration neuronale directe
The possibility of grafting computer chips directly into the human brain will allow brain-computer interfacing and brain-end-up interactions (electronic telepathy).Essentially, the soldiers would be able to communicate directly with autonomous systems and other soldiers, with deep implications for the optimization of operations during any war.
Cyber-components will also have important implications for medical care and recovery.For example, the neural implants could treat the symptoms resulting from a brain injury.It would be a kind of small flexible circuits arranged on the damaged areas of the brain to act as a "bridge" between damaged neurons.They could break the symptoms of the SSPT by breaking the link between external stimuli and panic response.Or witness the wars led by soldiers whose fear was carried away.
Bionic prostheses will become a custom for soldiers with irreparable damage to certain parts of their body.They will restore not only the normal functions, but will put them directly on the battlefield, with perhaps more mobility and perception than before.
Other notable advances, let us quote bio-impression and other areas in expansion of biotechnology.The possibility of printing organic tissues on demand, such as the skin, organs, muscle tissues and blood vessels, will considerably improve the rate of survival and recovery of soldiers in the next wars.
As the old adage says, "soldiers are still preparing to fight the last war".This means that the armies are still evolving to deal with new wars after treated them (a bit like antivirus software).This honored tradition will certainly continue in the future, with results that are difficult to predict.
Although it is never easy to make specific forecasts, to summarize, the nature of the wars by 2050 could include significant changes;
Alas, some things never change.In my opinion, war is and will always be a human business.Even if the robots take control of the battlefield, they will always fight as we please.Again: real wars are never fully predictable and it is difficult for all forecasts to be respected.The nature of technological change will still create new levels of uncertainty.